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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It commonly serves as a type of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the biggest turnaround receives the award. In reality, it sparks an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or just the greatest shock.

But the latest race is distinctly unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent division champions declining and longtime strugglers improving together. In an normal season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's facing five other elite coaches.

This is how the projected ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent performance. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to create magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this isn't a typical campaign!

Where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. But he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

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