A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
